FORBES IS WRONG
The Forbes article What Wall Street Needs Now includes “Good Leaders Recognize When Patterns Change,” as the first item on their list. Well, that’s not good enough for me and it shouldn’t be good enough for you. Once the pattern changes everyone can see it, and a good leader should not be in the crowd. She should be ahead of it. Good Leaders see when patterns are ABOUT to change. While everyone else is looking at a clear bright picture of the present the savvy leader sees the vague outline of an emerging pattern through the incoming fog. Investors laughed and ignored lesser known fund managers who saw the emerging housing crash through the fog of exuberance. Some of these “lesser knowns” took 500% in returns to the bank.
HOW TO HONE THE ART OF SEE-ING INTO THE FUTURE
1. Look for data (not just numbers) over a broad and varied horizon. Look in unusual places.
2. Observe, study and understand universal motivators and patterns of behavior.
3. Note fleeting thoughts and hunches that typically fly into your mind almost without notice then escape quickly without your attention. Later when the hunch emerges as a reality, you recall the fleeting thought.
Record these hunches and see whether they take place in reality.
These practices will help you know when to trust a sighting of the future and to act before everyone else sees it.
QUICK STORY
Yesterday a client, whose company is fifth in their industry for market share with a goal of becoming number one or two, expressed doubt that unless the company begins to do what the top 4 do now, they won’t achieve the goal. “Well, that’s all fine and good,” I said. “But what about looking at what they do differently AND what they aren’t doing as a way of catapulting your company ahead of the pack?” He took out his pen and made a note.
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Great point! And you offer a great practice for testing and honing your “see-ing” abilities.
Seems that companies are stuck in best practices and benchmarking as a “right” way way to plot a path to the future. While these can be useful exercises for evaluating and identifying ways to improve your effectiveness, using them to drive your future plans seems to me to be a bit like looking in someone else’s rear view mirror as a way to figure out where you want to drive.
.-= Susan Mazza´s last blog ..Are You the Master of Your Time? =-.
Susan – Thanks for your terrific comment. Your statement about looking in someone else’s rearview mirror nails it and I’ll be quoting you (with reference of course) in the future. Can you see me now?
Better yet, great leaders lead the change and transformation that others copy. Right now, the leaders I am inspired about are not only creating positive change and transformation for their organizations but for society too. You can read stories about these leaders on my blogwww;businessthatcares.blogspot.com
Thanks Lisa. Yes, Yes and Yes to your comment that leaders do well while doing good. Your comment merits an invitation to join the Corporate Soul Movement referenced in a previous post. http://germaneconsulting.com/fixing-the-hole-in-the-corporate-soul/
Thanks Lalia and Yes, Yes, Yes, to your statements about doing well while doing good. Please join a number of like-minded folks at the Corporate Soul Movement referenced in a previous post at http://germaneconsulting.com/fixing-the-hole-in-the-corporate-soul/. In a few months I will be inviting contributions from guest bloggers and will soon feature an interview with Tony Hsieh, CEO of Zappos who “Delivers Happiness.”
Excellent suggestions for “see-ing”. So few have this potential and they are the real leaders. Is it a gift or is it a skill that can it be learned? I’m still thinking about that!
.-= Dorothy Dalton´s last blog ..Job search and “Gen Y should I?” =-.
Dorothy – Thanks for stopping by to read and comment.I have great respect for your work and refer clients to your site.
I think see-ing into the future is both a gift and a skill that many (perhaps all) of us have at some level. The problem is we don’t trust this tool enough to hone it, especially in cultures that are guided by science and little else, so it atrophies from lack of use. Empathy is one of the building blocks for see-ing. What follows is one of my favorite stories about Abraham Lincoln from Doris Kearns Goodwin’s Team of Rivals. I’ve heard her refer to empathy as one of Lincoln’s greatest gifts.
Helen Nicolay, whose father was Lincoln’s private secretary refers to this asset as ” ‘His crowning gift of political diagnosis …which gave him the power to forecast with uncanny accuracy what his opponents were likely to do.’ “ She recalls a caucus during which Lincoln listens to his colleagues at length, then rises up, throws off his shawl and pronounces, ” ‘From your talk, I gather the Democrats will do so and so’ “ [therefor] ” ‘I should do so and so to checkmate them,’ and then proceeded to outline all the moves for days ahead; making them so plain that his listeners wondered why they had not seen it that way themselves.”
I’ll be interested in hearing what happens as you hone this gift.
Anne, As always brilliant, thought provoking and I loved your tips for honing in on see-ing into the future. Thank you GOOD Leader.
.-= Lolly Daskal ´s last blog ..Lead From Within =-.
Thanks lovely lady Lolly. Here’s hoping the future has much good in store for you.
HI Anne, This is a great post.
Spotting patterns is also made easier with a ‘systems-thinking’ lens. (We did a 7-day blog series on systems-thinking recently if you’re curious to find out more.) This allows you to see many of the underlying connections between things that many people do not see. In line with some of your other posts, this also about seeing the whole as well as the parts. When we look at things in this way with others, it also allows us to understand our own mental models (assumptions, biases etc) that lead us to see thing the way we do. Un-surfacing our own mental models within organisations can lead to radical changes in understanding and significant improvements in performance.
There are also a variety of techniques such as scenario planning that help teams explore (in a structured way) what dangers may be lurking in the midst of the fog for their organisation.
Great blog and great site.
Best regards,
David
.-= David Kerr´s last blog ..Short-Termism versus the Long-Term View of Performance =-.
Dave – I absolutely agree. Systems thinking is an important foundation and Presence by Senge et al is a wonderful read for those interested in See-ing into the future. Thanks for raising your voice here. Systems thinking coupled with noting thoughts that would otherwise fly by our consciousness is a powerful combination to hone see-ing.
[...] Forbes said good leaders recognize when patterns change. Anne Perschel over at Germane Insights Blog writes they were wrong. Good leaders SEE INTO the FUTURE. [...]
Ann,
I respect the work you do. This post caught my attention and I can’t get my mind off of it. It is powerful advice for this rapidly changing marketplace. The question will be, which leaders and organizations heed the warning.
Love these two sentences in particular. “Good Leaders see when patterns are ABOUT to change. While everyone else is looking at a clear bright picture of the present the savvy leader sees the vague outline of an emerging pattern through the incoming fog.”
Thanks for reaching out Laura and for adding the “the knowing-ness” to the collection of meaningful phrases. Here’s to paths that recur as well.
Let’s trust where they may lead us.
Warm Regards
Hi Anne,
Had some problems with my username setup at ComLuv (long story), so now have different username .. now ‘WattWorks’.
Anyway, I wanted to add the comments I made above (under a different username) … and also wanted to make a link to your other page on a 5-step process for strategy creation.
The process for strategy creation and scenario planning should also involve people from across the organisations (not just board-level) for sufficient views to be captured.
You may be interested in the following blog post that brings these two themes together I think …
http://www.watt-works.com/systems-thinking/a-systems-thinking-approach-to-strategy-creation/
Again, you have a great blog and a great site!
Best regards,
David
.-= David Kerr´s last blog ..Superb Resource on System Archetypes =-.