Kill all the pigs.

This decree was ordered by Cairo’s government officials to prevent a swine flu epidemic. It caused a mess. A big mess.

It was a rational decision based on cause and effect thinking. If pigs cause swine flu, kill the pigs. It failed, however, to consider that the solution itself had unintended consequences in a complex and organic (pardon the pun) system for disposing of garbage. This made the swine flu problem a messy one, as garbage tends to be. “Messy problems” defy traditional linear thinking because they exist within complex systems with lots of interdependent moving parts. When one part moves, it effects the others. Solutions call for systems thinking.

Two Systems

Cairo is a city of two systems.

1. formal – rationally designed, government run, complicated, bureaucratic and inefficient
2. informal – organically emerging, socially derived, based on barter, personal contacts and bribes

Most people use system number two.

Ineffective Garbage

In the formal system employees of large multinational companies pick up the trash from large centralized bins and haul it far away. In this system residents carry their trash to locations some distance from their homes. Being seen carrying trash lowers one’s status.

Effective Garbage

The informal system of trash pickup is convenient, environmentally sound, protects social status, and provides a poor segment of the population with paid work. Zabaleen, a community of Egyptian Christians who live on the cliffs at the edge of the city, have gone door to door collecting trash in Cairo for centuries. They recycle what they can for cash and feed the food waste to their pigs. The animals are eventually slaughtered for food. Cairo’s residents simply leave their trash by the door and the next day it’s gone. It is a perfect system.

And it worked until there were no more pigs such that the Zabaleen had little incentive to keep the informal system going. And then the garbage piled up. And then government officials had both a political mess and an environmental mess to clean.

Garbage without a Plan

Government officials who developed the kill-all-the-pigs solution failed to consider the strength of the informal system that had emerged from and was supported by the socioeconomic structure of the city. They therefor created unintended consequences that disrupted the city’s organic system for trash and garbage removal. The consequences, however, could have been predicted by those who knew and used the informal system. Had this happened people could have been better prepared for change by way of communication and education.

As if the consequences were not bad enough, health officials in Egypt later declared that pigs are not the primary carrier of swine flu.

Changing the Way We Think

Before we laugh at Egyptian officials, let’s consider the thinking that led to the garbage or that was garbage. And let’s remember we all create our own ineffective garbage.

1.  What caused the garbage problem?

Killing the pigs.

2.  What was the problem with the thinking that led to this garbage-like solution?

Using linear cause and effect thinking to solve a problem that called for systems thinking.

3.  What caused the failure to see the situation in terms of a complex  adaptive system or a messy problem that could not be solved with cause and effect thinking?

Officials sitting at the table to solve the problem lacked a diverse socioeconomic perspective. They did not account for the informal system because they did not deal with their own garbage (until of course they created political garbage). Those who understood the informal system were not part of the solution.

The solution?

1. Involve diverse members of the larger system to provide a broader more inclusive context for solving problems.

2. Assume the situation is not as simple as you think it is, particularly if people are involved, and employ systems thinking when appropriate.

To read more about complex adaptive systems and why systems thinking, not linear thinking, must be used to solve the current economic problems read Embracing Complexity in Harvard Business Review.